Alright, so the latest poll numbers show Christie up by Ten points ( Quinnipiac ) and five points ( FDU/Public Mind ).
It’s early…the only poll that matters is on election day…blah, blah, blah.
Here are the numbers to watch – Corzine’s favorables among Democrats are still not where they need to be. 73% support him, and that ain’t enough. Ultimately, it comes down to turnout in the key cities and counties. Because if the local machines get their people to the polls on November third: Advantage Dem.
But if there is no last-minute enthusiasm or if the key pieces of the so-called machine are you know, in jail…then it could be a problem for the incumbent.
As for Christie, let’s face it – the guy has not had a great couple of weeks in the news. And the barrage of attack ads has also been intense. Did they work? Well, according to Peter Wooley of FDU they have…a little. Christie’s negatives have gone up ten percent to 35%. Even Christie acknowledged on Tuesday that the attacks have hurt him. But he countered that if $7 million was spent to hurt anybody, there would be an impact.
Sometimes the press, the insiders and the campaign people seem to be talking with each other to the exclusion of the average New Jerseyan who votes. That is, The issues we all consider important may not resonate with someone who will pull the lever one way or another on election day.
But here is the key to that completely unoriginal observation I just made…the issues that ultimately matter may not be resonating yet.
The poll I wanna see is the one after people are back at work and the kids start school.