I don’t put too much stock in the polls, because frankly they have been all over the place. Suffice to say, that almost anyone you talk to agrees: this race is too close to call.
Democrats have been saying privately that their internals show them up by five or more, but some of their faces tell a different story.
Here are some numbers to consider. In 2005 Corzine bested Forrester by 200,000 votes. But a lot’s changed since then. According to the Division of Elections, there are nearly 500,000 new registered voters since that last gubernatorial election. There were 4.8 million then, and there are 5.2 million now. Obviously, a lot of those new voters registered specifically to vote for Barack Obama in the historic 2008 election. So, is there any evidence that they will…
a) have the same level of enthusiasm and vote again
b) even vote Democratic.
Tough to say. Democrats are hoping it breaks for them. Certainly the numbers are there for a win if the motivation blossoms.
But now consider this…since June 2 of this year there are 76,294 new registered voters(!). Of those 12,349 are Dems, 7,082 are Repubs and 55,759 are unaffiliated. Those unaffiliated’s could be the difference in this race. And here’s the thing: they are not registering to vote for Obama.