The Four

As first reported here, Democrats ( Let me say the word again – Democrats ) believe they had the support of four Republicans in the state Senate to vote in favor of the gay marriage bill.

Enter Steve Lonegan. the former Gubernatorial candidate has a list of 75,000 supporters in New Jersey. People on that list were contacted and urged to let the four undecided Republicans know that they should vote “no” on gay marriage.

And they heard, alright. Hundreds of calls and emails have been pouring into those legislative district offices of the four. One staffer described it to me this way, “we got killed.”

There have also been robo-calls to voters in those four districts, and starting next week there will likely be radio ads.

Kip Bateman who had been on the fence is now leaning toward “no.” Jen Beck issued a statement today ( which sounded like it was equipped with daggers aimed a certain unnamed blogger, ahem ) saying that she is still undecided. And we haven’t heard from Sean Kean or Bill Baroni.

And here is something else we are going to be hearing about soon. It’s a new group called the Conservative Republican Leadership Committee. They call themselves a “good government group.” It was formed after the election in response to Republicans only picking up one seat in the Assembly. The head of  this new organization is Ginny Littel who told me today that it’s not really about the gay marriage issue per se. They just believe that gay marriage should not bee ram-rodded through during lame duck and that there should be a “full airing.”

I am also told that people close to Chris Christie have been trying to tamp down the flames. They have been discouraging the gay marriage opponents from “aggressively lobbying” the Republican four.

Let’s say this for now. The gay marriage bill is not on the agenda for next week’s first meeting of the Senate Judiciary committee during lame duck.

 

Congress Watch

Years ago…NJN had funding for a show called “Congress Watch.” It ran for about year, and it consisted of sitting down with each member of the NJ Congressional delegation for a half hour.

To be truthful, with many of those interviews there just wasn’t all that much to talk about. And the show died a relatively painless death along with the funding that came with it.

Sometimes New Jersey doesn’t pay much attention to what’s going in Congress. After all, the job doesn’t come with state contracts or patronage jobs. But that doesn’t mean what our delegation is doing should be ignored. Last year, the Garden State elected two new members – Leonard Lance in the 7th, and John Adler in the 3rd. Since then, there have been a couple of high profile votes that are worth noting, and could even help shape whether or not those two newly elected fellows keep their seats.

The DNC has begun running radio ads in 32 districts against Republicans who voted against the landmark health care legislation which passed the House on November 8 by a vote of 220 -215.

Two of those Republicans are in New Jersey – Frank LoBiondo, and the aforementioned Lance. let’s leave LoBiondo aside for minute…because who cares, right??! ( Sorry, there is that attitude about Congress again ).

Let’s talk about Lance for a minute, who some believe is more likely to face a challenge from the right over his “yes” vote on Obama’s cap and trade environmental legislation. Lance says he voted against Obamacare because it adds new taxes and won’t fix the problem. I don’t know enough to determine whether or not that is true. But here is what I do know: Adler ( a Democrat ) also voted against the health care bill. So why isn’t the DNC targeting him?????

I mean, if the people of New Jersey want comprehensive health care reform and Congress was prepared to deliver it, why shouldn’t the whole delegation be on board?? Or if they are not, why are some guilty and others innocent? I think it’s fair to say that there is a bit of hypocrisy here. In fairness, Adler is from a district that hasn’t voted for a Dem in nearly a century and a quarter  ( until 2008 when they voted for Adler ). So I can see giving him a pass. But then doesn’t Lance deserve one for voting his conscience?

The Gay Marriage Debate

Perhaps he spoke to soon.

Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Paul Sarlo is backing away from Friday’s comments. In a quick afternoon soundbite, Sarlo said on Friday that at this point the Judiciary Committee does not have the votes to pass the bill.

But today, Chris Eilert from Sarlo’s office tells me that Sarlo may have his own personal view ( he’s against it ) , but is willing to put that aside. Sarlo will “not allow his personal views to interfere with the will of the caucus and its leadership.”

hmmmm. I can only imagine the number of angry calls that took place over the weekend in regards to this issue. One thing seems clear and that is the Dems are on the precipice if not fully engaged already in some kind of internecine warfare on what was once believed to be a less than divisive issue.

Supporters point to an April Quinnipiac poll that shows New Jerseyans support same-sex marriage by a 49-43% margin.

But, elections change things. And a big “L” at the top of the ticket for the party of the left seems to have spooked the ones who want to stake out what they consider to be the middle.

From what I am told all weekend there were head counts. Democrats are now confident they have the support of at least four Republicans in the Senate including Jen Beck, Sean Kean, Kip Bateman and Bill Baroni. Democrats will not apparently bring it up for a vote without that bi-partisan support.

The situation was described to me as “fluid.” Meaning ( I think ) that there will be a long internal debate about whether to proceed with this. Lawmakers who are in favor seem confident that the votes are there for passage.

Gay Marriage In Bigger Trouble Than We Thought

As I’ve been reporting all week, gay marriage has been facing quiet opposition from  Democrats in the Assembly who are queasy about voting on the issue in lame duck.

The conventional wisdom was that the state Senate would go first, where supposedly the votes exist. Boy, was that wrong.

Apparently, there aren’t even enough votes in the Senate Judiciary Committee to get the bill out of committee. At least that’s according to Senate Judiciary Cmt. Chair, Paul Sarlo. I ran into him at a Meadowlands event this afternoon. He was invited by Governor-Elect Chris Christie to tour the new Jets and Giants stadium and the shell that is the Xanadu project.

Anyway, when asked about the gay marriage bill coming up for a vote in Judiciary, a visibly uneasy Sarlo told me the following:

“Posting that vote would require members of the committee to demonstrate to me a willingness to support it. I am leaning towards not supporting it…I have supported Civil Unions. Today, as I stand here we do not have the votes in the Judiciary Committee.”

Wow. Bombshell. It sounds to me like the door has not completely closed, but advocates for the bill have their work cut out for them if they want this legislation to see the light of day in lame duck.

However, Reached late Friday Senator Ray Lesniak said he “respectfully disagrees” with Sarlo. Lesniak believes there should at least be an up or down vote on the issue.

Senator Loretta Weinberg, a prime sponsor of the bill went a step further. Weinberg told me by telephone that Sarlo assured her he would post the bill. She maintains that the votes are indeed there on Judiciary…and Sarlo guaranteed her there would be a vote.

Yes, Gay Marriage Is In Trouble

The trouble here is apparently within the Democratic caucus in the Assembly. Sources now confirm that Pat Deignan, Fred Scalera, Peter Barnes, Joseph Egan and possibly Gary Schaer and Jack Connors are balking at voting for it.

Democrats seem a little wary of exhibiting what some middle-of-the-road voters might consider a far-left agenda during a financial crisis and shortly after the Democratic Governor ( who had spoken out publicly for gay marriage ) was so solidly defeated.

We also shouldn’t play down the significance of the Church on this one. In August the New Jersey Catholic Conference, which represents Catholic Bishops in New Jersey, began collecting signatures which eventually totaled 150,000 people who are currently opposed to gay marriage. And members of the Assembly were literally called out on the pulpit.

In other words, some Democrats are getting the message that not all of New Jersey is there yet when it comes to this issue. And Democrats need to be cautious before they use up valuable time in lame-duck changing social policy that’s been the law of the land since the beginning of the common era.

Many Democrats now believe this issue should be put directly to the voters in a ballot referendum. New York has opted to put it off, California overturned their law and Maine has now done the same.

The truth is, the votes are there in the Senate with Bi-partisan support. That means they will have to go first. If it passes, sources say chances for passage in the Assembly improve, but are still not guaranteed.

Is Gay Marriage In Trouble?

The plan was to pass this legislation during the lame-duck session. But insiders now say there are serious questions about whether Democrats have the votes to do so. And as one proponent of the legislation is now saying “the advocates are going to have to prove that the support is there” before it’s even brought up for a vote.

Here’s the thing, apparently in the Senate the votes exist. Gay marriage would likely pass the upper house with Republican support ( albeit a small number of Repubs ). In the Assembly, support is less certain. This is for several reasons…but the problem is within the Democratic party.

One, Democrats are no longer 48 votes. They are 45, because three guys are in legal hot water ( Vas, Chiapppone and Smith ). Second, some Democrats who won re-election last week didn’t quite knock ‘em dead with their vote totals, perhaps putting their hold on those offices a little less firm. I suppose you could say the message was received on that one. Then of course there is Maine. Voters there overturned gay marriage last week in a  referendum. Legislators appear to be noticing that as well, and do not want to be embarrssingly rebuked by constituents.

One Democrat even told me that  they thought civil unions should have been given more of a chance. That perhaps gay marraige will happen in NJ someday, but not necessarily next week.

And that brings me to the final point here which is that there isn’t a lot of time. Legislators aren’t expected to conduct any official business until November 23. Officially I am told that the Democratic caucus hasn’t had any meetings on this issue. So even if there is a committee hearing that first day back, could it reasonably be passed before the end of the year? Seems like a very small window for an issue that hasn’t been firmly decided one way or the other.

Governor Corzine has said he would sign it. And Christie most certainly will not. So, if the Dems are gonna get this thing passed time’s-a-wastin’.

 

Governor Christie

There are a lot of reasons Christie won, and I would be hard pressed to name all of them. So, I will try and and highlight a few things ( some completely unoriginal, others that people know but don’t like to say aloud ).

First of all, congratulations to Chris Christie and his campaign. They played their cards ( which included far less money ) correctly. In hindsight, despite all the hand wringing from people within his own party, not getting specific on property taxes was probably the right call. The election would have become a referendum on the Christie plan rather than on the unpopular incumbent.

Mike Duhaime, Bill Stepien and Maria Comella all deserve a lot of credit for keeping Christie out there and letting his Jersey roots come through.  A strategically placed article in the NY Times about Christie’s Springsteen fandom certainly didn’t hurt, for example. And we should give brother Todd some credit too. He was out there in ways seen and unseen ( he knows what I mean ) helping his bro, and I think that helped make a difference.

Of course there were the vote totals that have been sliced and diced every which way. Huge turnout in base areas along the shore. And not enough Democratic turnout in areas like Middlesex. Interesting that Christie took a walk down a Woodbridge street with mayor McCormac two days after the election isn’t it?

It’s also interesting That the day after the election, Christie was at Steve Adubato’s school in Newark”s North Ward. Some thought long ago that Adubato made a deal with Christie. Vote totals weren’t great in Essex, but they were just good enough, and Adubato is just savvy enough to make it look like no one sat on their hands.

It was reminder at Wednesday’s Newark presser just how tightly knit that greater Newark community is. I’m talking about Christie, Adubato, Joe D and Cory Booker. They have all known and worked together for quite some time and I think you are going to hear more from all of them going forward in a Christie Administration.

As Joe Cryan told me yesterday about getting out the vote in cities, ‘you can knock on all the doors you want, but you can’t necessarily make ‘em vote.’

But the million dollar question is what comes next? My own thought is that Christie will govern from the center. Everyone wrote him off long before he took the reigns at the USA office. Then they were pleasantly surprised by his success. I think you might very well see him surprise critics as Governor when he picks and chooses the right battles.

It’s A Squeaker

I don’t put too much stock in the polls, because frankly they have been all over the place. Suffice to say, that almost anyone you talk to agrees: this race is too close to call.

Democrats have been saying privately that their internals show them up by five or more, but some of their faces tell a different story.

Here are some numbers to consider. In 2005 Corzine bested Forrester by 200,000 votes. But a lot’s changed since then. According to the Division of Elections, there are nearly 500,000 new registered voters since that last gubernatorial election. There were 4.8 million then, and there are 5.2 million now. Obviously, a lot of those new voters registered specifically to vote for Barack Obama in the historic 2008 election. So, is there any evidence that they will…

a) have the same level of enthusiasm and vote again

or

b) even vote Democratic.

Tough to say. Democrats are hoping it breaks for them. Certainly the numbers are there for a win if the motivation blossoms.

But now consider this…since June 2 of this year there are 76,294 new registered voters(!). Of those  12,349 are Dems, 7,082 are Repubs and 55,759 are unaffiliated. Those unaffiliated’s could be the difference in this race. And here’s the thing: they are not registering to vote for Obama.

October Surprise

You know, just as Corzine had managed to bob and weave through this campaign without any fatal mistakes, sure enough the most derided idea of his Governorship resurfaces five days before the election.

I am referring of course to the Governor’s toll hike plan, first proposed in early 2008. By most accounts, for certain distances Turnpike tolls would have risen for drivers by as much as 800% over several years. This idea was roundly rejected by the public. And Corzine heard that rejection first-hand when he went out on the road to sell it with ( what some said was a condescending ) power point presentation.

Anyway, he took his licks, he shelved the issue, and it went away. sort of.

On Thursday the New York Times published a piece based on interviews with both Corzine and Christie which were apparently (at least in Corzine’s case ) conducted a week earlier. The Governor reportedly sat for 70 minutes with David K and Halbfinger. And according to a source close to the Governor, the Times reporters were very unhappy that they weren’t granted more time.

The story ( published in print editions Friday ) said the Governor was considering revising a plan to lease the Turnpike, which was actually slightly different than the plan to raise tolls – although it’s hard to say what the final package would have looked like. It might have been an amalgam of both. Anyway, this story led to a barrage of press relaeses from Christie and the Repubs saying Corzine wants to resurrect that bad idea.

I wasn’t in the room, so I don’t know what exactly was said. I know both Times reporters, and respect them both very much. I am certainly not buying the suggestion that they were being vindictive for not getting enough red meat answers to their questions.

But having covered the Governor, I do think it is entirely plausible that he didn’t explain himself all that well. And today, when I asked him about it in Bayonne he could not have been more definitive. Both toll hikes and leasing the Turnpike are “Off the table. period. Not being brought back.” He also said the Times story was wrong.

But here is something else he said which makes me believe this is a classic case of Corzine’s miscommunication – The Governor will consider finding ways to make money with rest stops and other areas along the Turnpike. Well, go back and forth with reporters over that subtle distinction a few times, and everyone who walks out of that room will be telling a different story.

The Corzine campaign did not seem real eager to pick a fight here. And I’m not sure how the times will respond, if at all. But I think the lesson here is that when a candidate opens himself up to nuance a few days before an election…particularly on an issue that is a liability for him, he can expect it to make big headlines whether that is fair or not.

There might be a reason the Administration has blown through so many Communications Directors. Although it sounds like this time it’s on him.

The Politics Of Baseball

As far as the New Jersey sports fan goes, it couldn’t be a more tailor-made weekend. The Yanks are playing the Phils in the Series. The Giants take on the Eagles Sunday, and even the Sixers face off against the Knicks on Saturday ( that’s right, I know some of you north jersey Knick fans are out there ).

New Jersey is literally in the middle of all of it, and many writers have tried with different degrees of success to tie the current election into some sort of all encompassing sports metephor. Suffice to say, that particularly in the series and with the NFL game ( smattering of Jets fans aside ) half of New Jersey is gonna be disappointed with the outcome.

How does that affect the Governor’s race? I have no idea. would disgruntled Phillies fans be less likely to vote, and therefore that favors the incumbent since there are more repubs in south j?? Sorta hard to start playing with the numbers on that one. More relevant for Chris Christie to win this thing is how many people go into that booth on Tuesday, can’t find Daggett’s name on the ballot, quickly lose their enthusiasm for the third party candidate, and wind up pulling the lever for Christie because they know they don’t like Corzine.

So what is a candidate to do? Corzine is White Sox fan. I don’t even know where to begin with that one. Christie is ( as we all probably know ) a huge Mets fan. I join him in that eternal suffering. I guess we’ve had some highs with the lows, but the last few seasons have been painful and watching their division rival Phillies take on the Evil Empire Yankees is enough to make a Mets fan spontaneously combust.

So, here is my cheesy conclusion: Ultimately, Met fans like me will watch the series because it’s great baseball. And any good politician can get away with making that argument when confronting Phillie fans in the south, and Yankee fans in the north. That’s not dodging the question, but stating the obvious.

And the great thing about baseball rivalries is that they are based on geography and personal history, not ideology.